Assessing Risk Assessment

1. Introduction
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

Part I. Concepts, Model Level and Risk Assessment

2. Introduction to Part I
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

3. Literature Synthesis, Theoretical Background and Research Focus
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

4. Research Questions
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

5. On an Adequate Concept of Risk and Systemic Risk in the Realm of Banking
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

6. On the Relevance of Systemic Risks for Banks
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

7. Dealing with Quantitative Risk Management in Banking as a Complex Systems Problem
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

8. The Fundamental Inadequacy of Probability Theory as a Foundation for Modeling Systemic and Extreme Risk in a Banking Context
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

9. Conclusion to Part I
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

Part II. The Transition to the Decision Level, Risk Assessment and Management

10. Introduction to Part II
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

11. The Critical Turn: The Renaissance of Practical Wisdom
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

12. Scenario Planning in a Nutshell and its Role in Risk Management in Banking
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

13. Strengths and Weaknesses of Scenario Planning as a Risk Management Tool
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

14. Deriving Lessons for Rethinking the Approach to Assessing Extreme and Systemic Risks
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

Part III. In Search of a New Paradigm: The Third Way as a Road to Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR)

15. Introduction to Part III
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

16. Theoretical Foundations of a Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR) Approach
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

17. Case Study: LTCM and Extreme Risk
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

18. Managerial Implications
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

19. Scales of Measurement and Qualitative Probabilities
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

20. Model Validation
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

Part IV. Meta Level: Thinking about Thinking and Practices – What it Means to Reach Effective Risk Management Decisions

21. Introduction to Part IV as Overall Conclusion
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

22. Escaping the Traps for Logicians: Towards Decision- Making Competency in Risk Management
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

23. Final Remarks and a Path for Future Research
Christian Hugo Hoffmann

Keywords: Economics, Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods, Financial Crises, Risk Management