Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management
This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research.
The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features:
- Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling
- An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model
- Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems
- A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
Keywords: Risk Modeling; Risk Assessment; Risk Management; Risk Filtering; Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM), Theory of Scenario Structuring; Adaptive Multiplayer HHM (AMP-HHM); The Fractile Method; Decision Trees; Decision Matrix; Phantom System Models; The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method; The Fallacy of the Expected Value; The Fallacy of the Expected Value; The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method (PMRM); Impact Analysis; Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA); Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA); The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM); Bayes’ Theorem; Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM); Regional Input-Output Multiplier System (RIMS II);, Human Factors & Risk Assessment, Human Factors & Risk Assessment
- Haimes, Yacov Y.
- Haimes, Yacov Y.
- Sage, Andrew P.
- John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
- Publication year
- Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management
- Page amount
- 720 pages
- Technology, Energy, Traffic
- eISBN (ePUB)
- Printed ISBN