Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

1. Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention
Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer

Part I. Forecasting Harm

2. The Coastline of the Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction
David Omand

3. Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between ‘Intelligence Failure’ and ‘Warning Failure’
Jan Goldman

4. FORESEC: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project
Ville Brummer, Clementine Burnley, Henrik Carlsen, Ana-Maria Duta, Bastian Giegerich, Raphaële Magoni

5. Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support
Fabian Wagner

6. Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime
Tom Vander Beken

Part II. Communicating and Learning from Warnings

7. Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War
Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer

8. Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioner’s Perspective
William Shapcott

9. Responding to Early Flood Warnings in the European Union
David Demeritt, Sebastien Nobert

10. Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organisational Culture and Disaster Prevention
Marc S. Gerstein, Edgar H. Schein

Part III. Responding to Warnings

11. Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective
Corene Crossin, James Smither

12. From the ‘Neurotic’ to the ‘Rationalising’ State: Risk and the Limits of Governance
Henry Rothstein, Olivier Borraz, Michael Huber

13. Silos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis
Gillian Tett

14. Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance
Thomas F. Huertas

15. Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to ‘Foresight for Prevention’ in an Age of Complex Threats
Warren H. Fishbein

16. Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks
Christoph O. Meyer, Chiara de Franco

Keywords: Political Science and International Relations, Political Science, Risk Management, International Relations, Terrorism and Political Violence, Sociology, general, Public Policy